Natural course of treated and untreated chronic HCV infection: results of the nationwide Hepnet.Greece cohort study.

Background: Interferon (IFN-alpha)-based regimens have been used with varying success in the treatment of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) for over two decades. The effect of such treatments on the natural course of CHC has been evaluated in small clinical trials with conflicting results.

Aim: To investigate the natural course of IFNalpha-based-treated and untreated patients with CHC by analysing data from the HEPNET.GREECE study.

Methods: We retrospectively analysed 1738 patients from 25 Greek Centres (median age 40.1; males 57.6%; cirrhosis 9.2%), 734 untreated and 993 treated with IFNalpha-based regimens [44.7% sustained viral response (SVR)], followed-up for median 25.2 and 46.8 months, respectively.

Results: During follow-up, 48 patients developed liver decompensation and 24 HCC. Older age was significantly related to disease progression (HR = 2.6 per 10 years of increasing age). Stratified by baseline cirrhosis, Cox analysis showed that patients with SVR, but not without SVR, had significantly lower hazard for events compared with nontreated patients (HR = 0.16; P < 0.001), whereas the detrimental effect of older age remained highly significant. Separate group analysis demonstrated that in cirrhosis, the beneficial effect of treatment was evident even without SVR. Treatment effect interacted significantly with age, indicating that older patients, mainly noncirrhotic, gained the most benefit.

Conclusions: IFNalpha-based treatment does alter the natural course of CHC. A protective effect is mostly present in patients with SVR, but older patients, at higher risk of events, gain the greatest benefit. In established cirrhosis, treatment carries a protective effect even among those without SVR.