[Analysis of independent risk factor in patients with poor prognosis after liver transplantation].

Objective: To investigate the prognosis after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT), and to elucidate the risk factors of poor prognosis in these patients.

Methods: Adult recipients of OLT in Renji Hospital of Shanghai Jiaotong University were retrospectively analyzed. Data in pre-, intra- and post-OLT periods of these patients were collected. Acute kidney injury net (AKIN) criteria were used to analyze the post-OLT acute kidney injury (AKI). By following up all the patients for over a year, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to evaluate the prognosis within 28 days and 1 year. Cox regression analysis was performed to evaluate risk factors of patient death, especially the influence of AKI on patient prognosis.

Results: There were 193 patients enrolled, the average age was (48.07+/-10.02) years old. The ratio of male to female was 4:1. One hundred and sixteen patients (60.1%) were found to have AKI after OLT. Twenty-eight-day mortality of post-OLT AKI patients was higher than that without AKI patients [15.5%(18/116) vs. 0, P<0.05], 1 year survival rate of post-OLT AKI patients was lower than that without AKI patients [(70.7% (82/116) vs. 90.9 (70/77), P<0.05). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed the survival rate of non-AKI (77 patients), AKI stage 1, 2 and 3 patients (58, 25 and 33 patients respectively) post-OLT were 90.9%, 81.0%, 84.0% and 42.4%, respectively. All the non-survivors were discovered to have AKI within 28 days post-OLT. Cox regression analysis showed pre-OLT hypertension [hazard ratio (HR)=4.398, 95% confidence interval (CI)ú 1.535-12.604, P=0.006], post-OLT AKI (HR=12.100, 95%CI: 1.565-93.540, P=0.017), infection (HR=4.709, 95%CI: 1.813-12.226, P=0.001) and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score > or =10 (HR=3.627, 95%CI: 1.244-10.573, P=0.018) were risk factors of 1 year death.

Conclusion: AKI is an independent risk factor of poor prognosis after liver transplantation. Prevention of AKI may improve the survival rate of OLT patients.