Attempt to replicate published genetic associations in a large, well-defined osteoarthritis case-control population (the GOAL study).

Objective: Published studies have tested over 90 genes for association with osteoarthritis (OA), but few positives reported have been independently replicated. Using a new case-control study, our aim was to attempt the replication of findings from 12 genes reported to have significant genetic association with OA and to further examine the role of genetic variation in six of these genes.

Methods: A case-control study was undertaken in Nottingham, UK. Hospital-referred index cases with symptomatic, radiographic OA (ROA) of the knee (n=1040) or hip (n=1004) were recruited. Asymptomatic controls (n=1123) were recruited from intravenous urography waiting lists and screened for radiographic hip and knee OA. Sixty-eight polymorphisms were genotyped in IL1A, IL1B, IL1RN, IL4R, IL6, COL2A1, ADAM12, ASPN, IGF1, TGFB1, ESR1 and VDR. Statistical analysis compared allele or genotype frequencies of these polymorphisms in all asymptomatic controls and the subset of controls without ROA vs all OA, knee OA and hip OA. The analyses were adjusted for age, gender and body mass index.

Results: We were unable to replicate any of the published genetic associations investigated. Our extended exploratory analyses identified some associations between polymorphisms in TGFB1, IGF1 and IL1RN and OA; but the strength of evidence varied with the control group used.

Conclusion: Lack of replication is common and could be due to differences in study design, phenotype, populations examined or the occurrence of false positives in the initial study. Variants within TGFB1, IGF1 and IL1RN could have a role in OA susceptibility; however, replication of these findings is required in an independent study.