Predictors of short-term intra-hospital case fatality following first-ever acute ischaemic stroke in Nigerians.

Objective: To determine the predictors of 30-day intra-hospital case fatality rate in patients with first-ever acute ischaemic stroke, attending a tertiary care hospital in Western Nigeria.

Study Design: A cross-sectional observational study.

Place And Duration Of Study: This study was conducted at the Lagos University Teaching Hospital, Lagos, Nigeria between February 2003 and May 2004 (16 months).

Methodology: One hundred consecutively consenting patients admitted within 72 hours of onset of first-ever acute ischaemic stroke were studied. Uniform information was obtained using a standard format documenting demographic information, stroke-related symptoms and signs, risk factor profile, admission Glasgow Coma Score (GCS), stroke severity, admission Random Blood Glucose (RBG) and presence of complications. All patients were closely followed-up to monitor progress and document any complications. The end point was mortality or survival at 30 days from stroke onset.

Results: The 30-day case fatality rate was 28%. In univariate analysis, the factors predicting mortality were admission stroke severity, admission hyperglycaemia, admission level of consciousness, and presence of any complication during the hospitalization period. Of these factors, presence of complications had the strongest correlation with 30-day case fatality (r = 0.52; p = 0.001).

Conclusion: Presence of complications was the most important predictor of short-term mortality in Nigerians with firstever acute ischaemic stroke. Prevention, early detection, and aggressive intervention to treat complications may reduce the unacceptably high mortality rate of ischaemic stroke in our environment.