Total bilirubin is a useful predictor of persisting common bile duct stone in gallstone pancreatitis.

Accepted guidelines for preoperative endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) in gallstone pancreatitis are lacking. Our previous investigations suggested that serum total bilirubin on hospital Day 2 best predicts persisting common bile duct (CBD) stones. We aim to identify an optimal total bilirubin threshold on hospital Day 2 that would predict persisting CBD stones and guide obtaining preoperative ERCP. Prospective and retrospective data were available from 200 consecutive patients with gallstone pancreatitis at a public teaching hospital from 2003 through 2007. Charts were examined for persisting CBD stones on ERCP and/or intraoperative cholangiography during laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Patients with cholangitis (n = 18) were excluded. Nineteen of the remaining 182 (10%) patients had CBD stones. Mean hospital Day 2 bilirubin was 3.7 mg/dL for patients with CBD stones versus 1.4 mg/dL for those without (P < 0.0001). Seventeen patients (9%) had total bilirubin 4 or greater on hospital Day 2. Of these, eight (4%) had CBD stones (specificity 94%). Of the 165 patients with total bilirubin less than 4, 11 (7%) had CBD stones (P < 0.0001). In gallstone pancreatitis, a serum total bilirubin level 4 mg/dL or greater on hospital Day 2 predicts persisting CBD stones with enough specificity to serve as a practical guideline for ERCP while minimizing unnecessary procedures.