[Simulation and prediction of urban and rural settlement growth and land use change in Yingkou City].

Based on the 1988, 1992, 1997, 2000, and 2004 Landsat TM remote sensing data of Yingkou City, Liaoning Province, the urban and rural settlement growth and land use change in the city from 2005 to 2030 were simulated and predicted by using the SLEUTH urban growth and land use change model with six scenarios (current trend scenario, no protection scenario, moderate protection scenario, managed growth scenario, ecologically sustainable growth scenario, and regional and urban comprehensive planning scenario). The results showed that in the city, the increased area of urban and rural settlement growth from 1988 to 2004 was 14.93 km2, and the areas of water area, orchard, mine, and agricultural land changed greatly from 1997 to 2004. From 2005 to 2030, based on ecologically sustainable growth scenario, the urban and rural settlement growth would have a slow increase, and agricultural land and forestland would be better protected; under no protection scenario, the urban and rural settlement growth would have a rapid increase, and large area of agricultural land would be lost; under current trend scenario, the agricultural land loss would be similar to that under no protective scenario, but the loss pattern could be different; under moderate protection scenario and managed growth scenario, the agricultural land would have a smaller loss; while under regional and urban comprehensive planning scenario, the urban and rural settlement growth would be mainly distributed in urban development area and urban fringe. The SLEUTH model with different scenarios could simulate how the different land management policies affect urban and rural settlement growth and land use change, which would be instructive to the coordination of Chinese urban and rural settlement development and the socialist new rural reconstruction.