Use of plasma DNA to predict mortality and need for intensive care in patients with abdominal pain.

Background: We investigated the value of plasma deoxyribonucleic acid concentrations in patients presenting with acute abdominal pain to predict need for intensive care or mortality.

Methods: Plasma deoxyribonucleic acid taken from patients with acute abdominal pain was analyzed for the beta-globin gene using the quantitative polymerase chain reaction. The primary outcome measure was the combined 28-day mortality or admission to the intensive care unit.

Results: Of 287 consecutive patients with acute abdominal pain recruited, 12 patients were admitted to the intensive care unit and/or died. Median plasma DNA concentrations were higher in patients with cancer and major organ inflammation. Mean plasma DNA concentrations were three-fold higher in patients with systemic inflammatory response syndrome, five-fold higher in patients who died within 28 days, and eight-fold higher in patients admitted to the intensive care unit. The area under the receiver operator curve for plasma DNA concentrations and intensive care unit admission/mortality was 0.804. At a cut-off of 1100 GE/ml, the sensitivity was 67% (95%CI 35-90) and specificity was 89% (95%CI 84-92). At a cut-off of 175 GE/ml, the sensitivity was 100% (95%CI 73-100) and specificity was 30% (95%CI 25-36). Plasma DNA concentration predicted need for intensive care unit admission or death (adjusted odds ratio 1.4; P<0.0001).

Conclusions: Plasma DNA may have a role in patients with acute abdominal pain as a marker for inflammation and cancer, and a predictor of intensive care unit admission/mortality.