[An ambispective cohort study of the natural history of HIV infection among former unsafe commercial blood and plasma donors].

Objective: Discussing the natural history and the influencing factors of HIV infection among former commercial blood and plasma donors engaged in unsafe blood donation practices in China.

Methods: Using ambispective cohort study, with data obtained from ten counties (districts) from six provinces in the National AIDS Control Demonstration Area. HIV/AIDS cases were found and confirmed prior to July 24, 2006 being former commercial blood. Plasma donors were selected and data regarding infection, incidence, death, and influencing factors was collected. Analysis was performed using SPSS 12.0 statistical analysis software.

Results: (1) In 7551 cases of HIV infection, there were 6533 typical progressors (86.52%, 4757 cases of AIDS), 108 rapid progressors (1.43%), 910 long-term non-progressors (12.05%) with 4865 cases progressed to AIDS (64.43%). The median incubation period for HIV progression to AIDS was nine years (95% CI:8.96-9.04). (2) According to data, from a total of 1157 AIDS cases without ARV therapy (23.78% of total AIDS cases), there were 283 confirmed AIDS-related deaths, of which the median survival time was 6 months (95% CI:4-7) and the two and three year fatality rates were 95% and 99%, respectively. (3) The duration of HIV incubation period was irrespective to gender and age at the time of HIV infection (P > 0.05). Length of survival for untreated AIDS showed correlation to gender (P < 0.05) but no correlation with culture, marital status or age at the time of diagnosis of AIDS (P > 0.05).

Conclusion: Compared with the UNAIDS theory regarding slow disease progressors among adults, our study showed a longer AIDS incubation period and shorter outlook for untreated survival, but a similar incubation period for other routes of HIV infection.