The development of a captive breeding program for the endangered Key Largo woodrat (Neotoma floridana smalli) presents special challenges due to aggressive behavior toward conspecifics, a low reproductive rate, and limited information on estrous cycles. In an effort to identify behavioral predictors of copulation, we observed 17 Key Largo woodrats prior to and during 267 male-female pairing events, 76 of which resulted in copulation. Predictors of copulation include male-female interactions at the door of the tube connecting their enclosures, raspy vocalizations, pre-mounting lordosis, and chasing. A binary logistic regression model based on pre-pairing behaviors correctly predicted the outcome of 78.7% of observed pairing events, and a similar model based on intra-pairing behaviors correctly predicted the outcome of 86.1% of observed pairing events. Behavior-based models may be useful in the management of captive breeding programs for this and other endangered species.
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