[Epidemiological trend of gastric cancer in Tianjin, 1981-2002].

Objective: To explore the secular trend in incidence and mortality rate of gastric cancer in Tianjin and to provide evidence and reference for making prevention and control strategy for gastric cancer.

Methods: Data derived from Tianjin cancer registry system were analyzed by descriptive epidemiological method and Joinpoint model. A total of 17990 gastric cancer cases reported in Tianjin from 1981 to 2002, including 12755 males and 5235 females were studied.

Results: The annual percent change (APC) of crude incidence rate for males and females was -0.92% (Z = -3.85, P = 0.001) and -0.79% (Z = -2.67, P = 0.015), while the APC of standard incidence rate was -3.55% (Z = -13.52, P = 0.000) and -3.47% (Z = -12.85, P = 0.000). There was a descending trend of incidence rate in males and females above 45-years-old, however, in male under 45 years it showed an increased trend and in females it kept stable. The APC of crude mortality rate was -1.66% ( Z = -5.79, P = 0.000) for males and -1.84% (Z = -6.02,P = 0.000) for females, while the APC of standard mortality rate was -4.60% ( Z = -15.79, P = 0.000) for females and -5.36% ( Z = -8.28, P = 0.000) for males during 1989-2002. Mortality and incidence ratio also indicated a downward trend.

Conclusion: Despite its declining trend in Tianjin, gastric cancer still remains an important public health problem in facing of the aging society and many risk factors.