Impact of adiponectin and ghrelin on incident glucose intolerance and on weight change.

Objectives: Adiponectin and ghrelin are associated with adiposity and type 2 diabetes in several studies. We sought to prospectively determine the interaction of adiponectin and ghrelin in the development of adiposity and hyperglycaemia.

Design: Prospective observational study.

Participants: 393 community-dwelling Afro-Jamaicans (mean age 47 +/- 13 years; BMI 27.3 +/- 6.3 kg/m(2); 63% women) without glucose intolerance at baseline.

Measurements: Anthropometry, fasting plasma glucose, 2-h plasma glucose, insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), adiponectin and ghrelin concentrations were measured at baseline and 4.1 +/- 0.9 years later. Multivariate analyses were used to explore the associations of HOMA-IR, adiponectin and ghrelin with weight change and glycaemia. Results The mean weight change was 2.6 +/- 5.5 kg. There were 114 incident cases of impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and 35 cases of diabetes mellitus. Adiponectin was positively correlated with age and female sex (P-values < 0.01). After adjusting for age and sex, adiponectin and ghrelin were significantly correlated with weight at baseline and follow-up. However, they were not associated with weight change even after further adjustment for baseline weight. Adiponectin, but not ghrelin, was associated with 2-h glucose concentrations at follow-up even after adjusting for age, sex, HOMA-IR and BMI (P = 0.04). In the fully adjusted logistic regression model, adiponectin predicted incident IGT (OR 0.93; 95% CI: 0.87-0.99) and attenuated the effect of BMI on incident IGT.

Conclusions: These longitudinal data show that adiponectin and ghrelin may not be causally involved in the development of obesity. However, adiponectin is independently associated with decreased risk of incident IGT.