[The prediction value of modified early warning score grade for death of the patients in intensive care unit].

Objective: To study the prediction value and practicality of modified early warning score (MEWS) grade for death of the patients in intensive care unit (ICU).

Methods: According to the predetermined criteria, the clinical data of patients who were admitted to ICU during January 2005 to August 2006(patients with ICU stay exceeding 2 hours were enrolled for study) were collected, and MEWS grade and acute physiology and chronic evaluation II (APACHE II) scores were assessed (90 days as the end point of the observation period). MEWS and APACHE II's receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve, and their predication index were calculated and compared.

Results: The MEWS's and APACHE II's score in non-survivors were higher than the survivors. This difference had statistically significant difference (both P<0.01). In prediction of death of the patients in ICU, the MEWS grade > or =5 scores, Sensitivity was 89.66%, Specificity was 86.21%, accuracy rating was 87.93%, Youden index (YI)=0.758 6 and area under curve (AUC)=0.911 4. However for the APACHE II, they were grade > or =16 scores, Sensitivity was 96.55%, Specificity was 79.31%, accuracy rating was 87.93%, YI=0.758 6 and AUC=0.898 9.

Conclusion: MEWS grade is a useful index to predict the death of the patients in ICU. It is simple and practical, therefore it should be recommended in clinical practice.