Long-term follow-up of patients eligible, deferred, or ineligible for heart transplantation.

Background: When a patient is referred to a heart transplantation center, the patient and the physician should know the predicted long-term survival according to the first transplant committee decision. The aim of the study was to describe the follow-up of patients with heart failure referred to a heart transplantation center according to the initial decision to include (eligible), exclude (ineligible), or postpone (deferred) cardiac transplantation.

Methods: The study cohort consisted of 852 consecutive patients. Univariate and trend analyses were performed by classification of data into tertiles according to the date of the first visit. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to assess overall survival and probability of receiving a transplant. The Cox hazard model was used to identify predictors of survival.

Results: Transplantation incidence in the 3 groups (eligible, deferred, and ineligible) was 60%, 19%, and 5%, respectively. The 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year survival rates were 74%, 58%, 49%, and 37% among eligible patients; 87%, 72%, 62%, and 45% among deferred; and 69%, 50%, 39%, and 19% among ineligible patients (p < 0.001). The 10-year survival was 65% for eligible patients who received the transplant and 8.8% for eligible patients who did not receive the transplant. Transplantation was the most powerful predictor of survival.

Conclusion: The initial decision identified 3 groups of patients with different survival rates. Heart transplantation increases the survival of eligible patients at a rate similar to that of less sick subjects for whom heart transplantation can be deferred.