[Water pollution load in coastal zone of Xiamen: estimation and forecast].

By the methods of grey prediction and curve regression, the estimation and forecast models of water pollution load in coastal zone of Xiamen City, Southeast China were established, and validated with the statistic data of the pollution load in past decade. The estimation revealed that the industrial wastewater discharge per ten thousand RMB production value decreased yearly, while the total discharge of main pollutants increased gradually. In the total discharge of point source wastewater, about 76% of nitrogen and phosphorus came from domestic wastewater. In non-point source pollution loads, nitrogen and phosphorus of agricultural source occupied a larger proportion, while those of urban source were the least. In 2005, the nitrogen pollution load from different sources was in the order of domestic wastewater (DW) > agricultural non-point source (ANPS) > industrial wastewater (IW) > tourism wastewater (TW) > urban non-point source (UNPS), while phosphorus pollution load was ANPS > DW > IW > TW > UNPS.