The progress of coronary heart disease in Type 2 diabetes as measured by coronary calcium score from electron beam computed tomography (EBCT): the PREDICT study.

Coronary calcification score (CACS) measured by electron beam tomography is well established in the evaluation of cardiovascular risk in general populations. The PREDICT study aims to evaluate prediction of cardiovascular events by CACS in Type 2 diabetic subjects without previous clinical cardiovascular disease. In the present PREDICT sub-study, the rate of progression of CACS and factors influencing this rate were assessed. CACS was measured at baseline and after a mean interval of 4.0 (range of 2.1-5.0) years in the 202 PREDICT participants who agreed to have a second scan. Participants also had a range of conventional and novel biochemical risk factors measured at baseline. Progression of calcification was apparent in 170 (84%), while in 32 (16%) there was regression or no progression. Those showing progression had a significantly more adverse risk factor profile. Rate of change in CACS was strongly related to baseline CACS (p<0.0001). Rate of change also correlated with, waist:hip ratio (p=0.004), male gender (p=0.009), age (p=0.04), use of antihypertensive drugs (p=0.03) and statins (p=0.05) and, independently of baseline CACS, systolic blood pressure (p=0.0006), waist circumference (p=0.001) and urine albumin:creatine ratio (p=0.04). Most subjects with Type 2 diabetes showed progression of CACS. The absence of a relationship between progression and lipid risk factors and the positive relationship with statin and antihypertensive drug use may reflect earlier risk factor exposure. Independent relationships between progression and established calcification, blood pressure, central adiposity and urine albumin:creatinine ratio suggest areas for risk factor modification that could be especially relevant in Type 2 diabetes.