[The analysis of prognostic variables in 123 patients with multiple myeloma].

Objective: To assess the prognostic value of biological features and therapy-related factors in multiple myeloma (MM).

Methods: 123 patients with newly diagnosed MM between January 1998 and May 2005 were enrolled in this retrospective study. Biological features at presentation and therapy-related factors were analysed. The overall survival (OS) and time to progression (TTP) were estimated by Kaplan-Meier analysis and the distribution of OS and TTP were compared using log-rank test. Cox regression was used to identify the independent prognostic factors.

Results: (1) The univariate analysis indicated that more immature plasma cells in bone marrow biopsy, C-reactive protein >8. Omg/L, CD117 expression, serum beta2-microglobulin (beta2-MG) (3.5 approximately 5.5 mg/L), abnormal cytogenetics aberration of chromosome 13 (Delta13), hypodiploid, poor response to chemotherapy, interferon(IFN) therapy less than 6 months were associated with shorter OS(P <0.05). Lytic bone lesions at presentation, more immature plasma cells in bone marrow biopsy, serum beta2-MG (3.5 approximately 5.5 mg/L), poor response to chemotherapy, and IFN therapy less than 6 months as well as abnormal cytogenetics, hypodiploid and Delta13 were associated with shorter TTP (P <0.05). (2) Multivariable COX analysis indicated IFN therapy more than 6 months was a protective factor for OS and TTP, and more immature plasma cells in bone marrow biopsy was an independent poor prognostic factor for TTP.

Conclusion: The morphology of myeloma cells is useful for assessing the prognosis. And IFN therapy more than 6 months could lengthen OS and TTP.