A comparison of methods to estimate the prevalence of ovine Johne's infection from pooled faecal samples.

Objective: To compare estimates of ovine Johne's infection prevalence produced by several alternate methods based on pooled faecal culture (PFC) results with prevalence estimates based on individual faecal culture (IFC).

Procedure: Seven methods for estimating prevalence of infection based on PFC results were incorporated in a computer program, including methods for imperfect test sensitivity and specificity, for variable pool size and a Bayesian method that incorporates prior knowledge about test performance and prevalence. These methods were then used to analyse PFC data at one observation 30 months post-vaccination in a field trial of a killed vaccine for the control of OJD, undertaken on three farms in New South Wales.

Results: Prevalence estimates, for three methods that assume a perfect test, were close to the IFC estimate, whereas for three other methods that assume an imperfect test, the estimated prevalence was generally higher than the IFC estimate. In comparison, the Bayesian approach produced more variable estimates that were substantially higher than the IFC estimate when an inappropriately high prior estimate of prevalence was used.

Conclusion: Despite the limitations of each method, two methods provided accurate and reasonable estimates of the prevalence assessed by IFC in all instances, and are appropriate for the analysis of data from this vaccine trial. One of these methods also has the advantage of allowing for variable pool size. However, further research is needed to develop a method that will simultaneously account for variation in pool size and in test sensitivity and specificity.