[Development of a simple predicting tool for low bone mass of postmenopausal women: a study in Shanghai].

Objective: To develop a simple screening tool for low bone mass of postmenopausal women.

Methods: 405 postmenopausal women in Shanghai who visited the department of osteoporosis consecutively, aged 62.8 +/- 8.0 (47 approximately 90), underwent questionnaire survey on the risk factors of osteoporosis and fracture. Dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) was conducted on the left or right femoral neck to measure the bone mineral density (BMD) to identify osteoporosis (T-score
Results: The final tool was based only on age and body weight. The formula of screening index was: index = 2 x weight (kg)/10 + [-1 x age (year)/10]. The risk index thus obtained had a sensitivity of 93.4%, a specificity of 52.6%, and an AUC ROC of 0.818 (95% CI for the mean: 0.766 approximately 0.870). 58% of the high-risk women had osteoporosis, compared with 26% and 2% of the intermediate and low-risk women respectively.

Conclusion: The established and verified screening tool can easily predict the bone mass status in the postmenopausal women, thus screening the high-risk population and saving the cost of BMD measurement unnecessary for the low-risk population.