We develop and evaluate time-series models of call volume to the emergency medical service of a major Canadian city. Our objective is to offer simple and effective models that could be used for realistic simulation of the system and for forecasting daily and hourly call volumes. Notable features of the analyzed time series are: a positive trend, daily, weekly, and yearly seasonal cycles, special-day effects, and positive autocorrelation. We estimate models of daily volumes via two approaches: (1) autoregressive models of data obtained after eliminating trend, seasonality, and special-day effects; and (2) doubly-seasonal ARIMA models with special-day effects. We compare the estimated models in terms of goodness-of-fit and forecasting accuracy. We also consider two possibilities for the hourly model: (3) a multinomial distribution for the vector of number of calls in each hour conditional on the total volume of calls during the day and (4) fitting a time series to the data at the hourly level. For our data, (1) and (3) are superior.
Download full-text PDF |
Source |
|---|---|
| http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10729-006-9006-3 | DOI Listing |
Publication Analysis
Top Keywords
Similar Publications
The enhanced choice model of skill-based treatment (ECM-SBT; Rajaraman et al., 2021) is a package of behavioral treatment procedures with modifications designed to reduce risks associated with extinction of problem behavior. The skill-based treatment component of this package (Hanley et al.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFImproving Male Partner Involvement in HIV-Positive Women's Care Through Behavioral Change Interventions in Malawi (WeMen Study): A Prospective, Controlled Before-and-After Study.
Front Public Health
July 2022
Department of Biomedicine, University of Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy.
Several strategies and interventions have been implemented to improve male partner involvement (MI) in Sub-Saharan Africa, but evidence on successful interventions is scarce. This controlled before-and-after intervention study aims to evaluate the impact of three interventions on male partners' involvement in HIV+ women's care in Malawi. We piloted these three interventions: the organization of a special day for men, the deployment of male champions in communities to increase awareness on MI, and the delivery of an incentive (food package) for couples attending the facility.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFOsteogenesis imperfecta: towards an individualised interdisciplinary care strategy to improve physical activity and quality of life.
Swiss Med Wkly
June 2020
Paediatric Orthopaedic Unit, Lausanne University Hospital (CHUV) and University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
Background: This report describes a new strategy for the care of patients with osteogenesis imperfecta, based on an interdisciplinary team working. Thereby, we aim at fulfilling three main goals: offering thorough coordinated management for all, and improving physical activity and quality of life of the patients.
Aim: With rare diseases such as osteogenesis imperfecta (OI), patients and their family often suffer from inadequate recognition of their disease, poor care coordination and incomplete information.
Acceptability of couple antenatal education: A qualitative study of expectant couples attending antenatal clinics in Blantyre, Malawi.
Malawi Med J
September 2018
University of Malawi - School of Public Health and Family Medicine, College of Medicine, Blantyre, Malawi.
Background: Few studies have assessed the effectiveness and acceptability of male partner involvement in antenatal education. Yet, male involvement in antenatal care including antenatal education has been proposed as a strategy to improve maternal and neonatal outcomes. We conducted this study to add to the body of knowledge on acceptability of male partner involvement in antenatal education following an intervention.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFTime-Series Approaches for Forecasting the Number of Hospital Daily Discharged Inpatients.
IEEE J Biomed Health Inform
March 2017
For hospitals where decisions regarding acceptable rates of elective admissions are made in advance based on expected available bed capacity and emergency requests, accurate predictions of inpatient bed capacity are especially useful for capacity reservation purposes. As given, the remaining unoccupied beds at the end of each day, bed capacity of the next day can be obtained by examining the forecasts of the number of discharged patients during the next day. The features of fluctuations in daily discharges like trend, seasonal cycles, special-day effects, and autocorrelation complicate decision optimizing, while time-series models can capture these features well.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFWant AI Summaries of new PubMed Abstracts delivered to your In-box?
Enter search terms and have AI summaries delivered each week - change queries or unsubscribe any time!