Five-year predictive factors of type 2 diabetes in men with impaired fasting glucose.

Aim: The outcome of 743 French men (age 20-60) with impaired fasting glucose (IFG) [blood glucose 6.1-6.9 mmol/l] at T1 was evaluated 5 years later, at T2.

Methods: Personal and family medical history, smoking, nutritional habits, physical activity, blood pressure, body mass index (BMI) and waist girth, fasting biological data were collected at T1 and T2. Predictive factors for developing diabetes were compared between those who returned to normal fasting glucose and those who had diabetes, before and after adjustment for age, BMI, glucose and triglyceride (TG) levels.

Results: At T2, 44%, 39%, 17% were classified as normal fasting plasma glucose (FPG), IFG or diabetic, respectively. Odd ratios for diabetes were 4.2 for men with a family history of diabetes (FHD), 3.4 if BMI > or = 25 kg/m(2), 2.9 if waist girth > or = 90 cm, 2.8 if TG > or = 2 mmol/l and 1.9 if no daily dairy products were eaten. Still significant after adjustment for age, BMI, glucose and TG levels were: FHD (P=0.001), no daily dairy products (P=0.001), high alcohol intake (P=0.02) and low physical activity (P = 0.02).

Conclusion: No daily dairy products, high alcohol intake and low physical activity were independent predictive factors of a 5-year onset of diabetes after adjusting for BMI, FHD, triglyceride and glucose levels at baseline. For a better prevention of diabetes, these findings give clues for behaviour modifications as soon as IFG is detected.