Precaution, prediction, proof, and policy assessment.

The challenge of sustainable development--the ultimate goal of precaution-- demands that we shift our focus away from individual environmental problems and toward long-term integration of environmental, social, and economic policy. It also elevates protection of ecosystem processes and biodiversity to the status of significant policy goals. In this article, the author argues for a new use of the precautionary principle, as a means to assess broad policy decisions to target indirect or systemic rather than direct threats to sustainability. He draws on a case study of two Australian policies: the National Strategy for Ecologically Sustainable Development (ESD), and the National Competition Policy (NCP).1 While the proposals are ambitious and may not be achievable in the near future, nonetheless, it is in the nature of institutional and policy systems that it is difficult to predict when opportunities for policy change will arise. It is crucial to develop and articulate strategies now, to be promoted during brief windows of opportunity for policy change.