Predictive model for the outcome of infliximab therapy in Crohn's disease based on apoptotic pharmacogenetic index and clinical predictors.

Background: Infliximab (IFX) is an effective therapy for refractory luminal and fistulizing Crohn's disease (CD). Predictors of response could improve selection of patients with a higher probability of favorable outcomes and could improve the safety profile. We aimed to develop a predictive model for the response to infliximab in CD.

Methods: Genetic and clinical data collected in a previous pharmacogenetic study of apoptosis genes were analyzed using SAS Enterprise miner modeling software and SPSS 12.0. We proposed a novel apoptotic pharmacogenetic index (API) with a score ranging from 0 (low apoptotic response) to 3 (high apoptotic response) and subsequently developed a decision tree model.

Results: Response and remission rates significantly increased with API score (P = 0.005 in the group of patients with luminal CD, P = 0.02 in the group of patients with fistulizing CD). Patients with an API < or = 1 (n = 59) had the lowest response and remission rates in both the luminal CD (50% and 39.5%, respectively) and fistulizing CD (61.9% and 28.6%, respectively) groups, compared to those with an API of 2 (n = 158), whose response and remission rates were 73.8% and 56.1%, respectively, in the luminal CD group and 85.7% and 44.9%, respectively, in the fistulizing CD group; and those with an API of 3 (n = 10), whose response and remission rates were 100% and 85.7%, respectively, in the luminal CD group and 100% and 0% in the fistulizing CD group. Response in patients with an API < or = 1 was significantly influenced by concurrent azathioprine therapy in the luminal CD (21.4% versus 78.9%, P < 0.001) and in the fistulizing CD (46.6% versus 100%, P = 0.04) groups. In patients with an API of 2, we saw an interaction with age older than 40 years and location of disease (response 52.2% versus 83.9%, P = 0.008) in the luminal CD group and with baseline CRP greater than 5 mg/L (73.9% versus 93.9%, P = 0.04) in the fistulizing CD group.

Conclusions: From our newly proposed apoptotic pharmacogenetic index and clinical predictors, we developed a model for prediction of low, medium, and high responses to the first infusion of IFX in patients with CD. Further studies are needed to confirm the hypothesis generated by our study.