Distal bile duct carcinoma: prognostic factors after curative surgery. A series of 112 cases.

Background: The identification of independent prognostic indicators in distal bile duct carcinomas (DBDCs) has been limited by the small number of tumors and a lack of molecular prognostic markers. Markers assessed in combination may perform better than those considered individually. We conducted this study to identify prognostic predictors of patients with DBDC with special focus on combination of expression of p53 protein and clinicopathological predictors.

Methods: Between December 1996 and 2002, 112 consecutive patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy in the Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital for distal bile duct carcinomas were identified in a prospectively collected database. The survival of patients was comparable with respect to patient characteristics, clinicopathological factors and degree of p53 protein expression followed by a univariate and multivariate analysis.

Results: Actual 1, 3, and 5-year survival rates were 85.7, 50.9, and 25.0%, respectively. By Cox proportional hazards survival analysis, the most powerful predictors of survival rate were p53 expression [relative risk (RR) 5.2, 95% CI 4.8-5.6], pancreatic invasion (RR 5.6, 95% CI 4.3-6.9), lymph nodes metastasis (RR 3.9, 95% CI 3.3-4.5), and operative time (RR 1.8, 95% CI 1.5-2.1).

Conclusions: Overexpression of p53 in DBDC is strongly associated with significantly reduced survival, independently of clinicopathological prognostic factors. The resection margin status provides little independent prognostic information. Longer operative time may have unfavorable effect on prognosis of patients with DBDC.