Risk-scoring method for prediction of 30-day postoperative outcome after infrainguinal surgical revascularization for critical lower-limb ischemia: a Finnvasc registry study.

Background: The aim of the present study was to develop a risk-scoring method for prediction of immediate postoperative outcome after infrainguinal surgical revascularization for critical limb ischemia.

Methods: The Finnvasc registry included data on 3,925 infrainguinal surgical revascularization procedures. This database was randomly divided into a derivation and a validation data set of similar sizes.

Results: In the overall series, 30-day postoperative mortality and major amputation rates were 3.1% and 6.3%, respectively. The 30-day postoperative mortality and/or limb-loss rate was 9.2%. Diabetes, coronary artery disease, foot gangrene, and urgent operation were independent predictors of 30-day postoperative mortality and/or major lower-limb amputation. A risk score was developed by assigning 1 point each to the latter risk factors. In the derivation data set, the 30-day postoperative mortality/amputation rates in patients with scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 were 7.7%, 6.4%, 11.1%, 20.4%, and 27.3%, respectively, (P < 0.0001); mortality rates were 1.3%, 2.3%, 4.1%, 7.7%, and 12.1%, respectively, (P < 0.0001); and major amputation rates were 6.4%, 4.3%, 7.1%, 12.7%, and 18.2%, respectively, (P < 0.0001). In the validation data set, the 30-day postoperative mortality/amputation rates in patients with scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 were 4.8%, 7.5%, 10.1%, 15.9%, and 22.2%, respectively, (P < 0.0001); mortality rates were 0.7%, 2.3%, 4.2%, 5.5%, and 14.8%, respectively, (P < 0.0001); and major amputation rates were 4.6%, 5.3%, 6.4%, 11.0%, and 14.0%, respectively (P = 0.011).

Conclusions: This simple risk-scoring method can be useful to stratify the immediate postoperative outcome of patients undergoing infrainguinal surgical revascularization for critical lower-limb ischemia.