The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle of alternating warm El Niño and cold La Niña events is the dominant year-to-year climate signal on Earth. ENSO originates in the tropical Pacific through interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere, but its environmental and socioeconomic impacts are felt worldwide. Spurred on by the powerful 1997-1998 El Niño, efforts to understand the causes and consequences of ENSO have greatly expanded in the past few years. These efforts reveal the breadth of ENSO's influence on the Earth system and the potential to exploit its predictability for societal benefit. However, many intertwined issues regarding ENSO dynamics, impacts, forecasting, and applications remain unresolved. Research to address these issues will not only lead to progress across a broad range of scientific disciplines but also provide an opportunity to educate the public and policy makers about the importance of climate variability and change in the modern world.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1132588 | DOI Listing |
Sci Rep
January 2025
Department of Biological, Geological, and Environmental Sciences, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy.
The variability of East African short rains (October-December) has profound socioeconomic and environmental impacts on the region, making accurate seasonal rainfall predictions essential. We evaluated the predictability of East African short rains using model ensembles from the multi-system seasonal retrospective forecasts from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). We assess the prediction skill for 1- to 5-month lead times using forecasts initialized in September for each year from 1993 to 2016.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFMethodsX
June 2025
Department of Information System, Faculty of Information and Communications Technology, Nasional University, Jl. Sawo Manila No. 61 RT.14/ RW.7, West Pejaten, Pasar Minggu, South Jakarta 12520, Indonesia.
Peatland fires are increasingly becoming a concern as a recurring environmental issue in Indonesia, particularly along the east coast of Sumatra Island, in Bengkalis Regency. Therefore, the development of a peatland fire prediction model is necessary. This study aims to identify peatland fire vulnerability in Bengkalis Regency using burn area from MODIS 2019.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFMar Pollut Bull
January 2025
Facultad de Pesquería, Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina, Av. La Molina S/N, La Molina, Lima 15024, Peru.
Paracas Bay, located in the Humboldt Current system, is a highly variable coastal environment where hypoxia (dissolved oxygen concentrations <2 mg L) has been reported as a persistent feature of bottom conditions. In addition to hypoxia, milky water events have been reported in the bay, most likely associated with the presence of sulfides (i.e.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFSci Total Environ
January 2025
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Clima e Ambiente, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, Universidade do Estado do Amazonas, Av. André Araújo, 2936, Bairro Aleixo, 69060-001 Manaus, AM, Brazil.
The teleconnections between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and Tropical North Atlantic warming (+TNA) play a critical role in characterizing extreme drought events in the Amazon Basin (AB). This study examines the seven most recent drought extreme events up to 2023, using seasonal composites of the sea surface temperature and atmospheric variables over a five-quarter period starting at the austral spring(-1) of the year preceding that when the lowest water level at Manaus port was recorded. Two distinct patterns emerge, driven by consecutive ENSO events with opposite phases, referred to as cyclic La Niña-El Niño and cyclic El Niño-La Niña drought events.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFMar Pollut Bull
January 2025
School of Science, Technology and Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast, Hervey Bay, Queensland 4655, Australia.
The rising diversity and concentration of contaminants have surpassed ecological thresholds, threatening marine ecosystems. The effects of pollutants on marine animals, particularly sea turtles, are receiving increased attention due to their role as indicators of human impacts. This study examined the health implications of contaminant exposure in three green turtle (Chelonia mydas) foraging sites in the southern Great Barrier Reef, Australia.
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