Reliability of predictors of study success in medicine.

Aim: Examination of the reliability of predictors for study success found in a prospective study in the year 2002/03. We report the results of a retest in an unselected students' sample taken from the following academic year 2003/04.

Methods: In a comparison of successful and unsuccessful students in their first year at the Medical University of Vienna, four predictors for study success had been found (using a questionnaire in a prospective design). In a re-examination of this study, after testing for representativeness, all P values were first subjected to adjustment for multiple testing. Secondly, the items were retested in a student sample drawn in 2003/04 using the same procedures.

Results: After Finner's adjustment for multiple testing, the four predictors (male sex, German mother tongue, performance at school, learning capacity and learning style) were confirmed. In the students' sample of 2003/04, eighteen out of 22 items remained significant.

Conclusion: The majority of the prognostic factors found are reliable.