Can simple anthropometric and physical performance tests track training-induced changes in load-carriage ability?

The objective of this research was to determine whether tests of strength, endurance, and anthropometry could be used to assess training-induced changes (delta) in load-carriage performance. Eighty-four British Army recruits completed a 10-week training program. Strength, endurance, body composition, and 3.2-km load carriage with 15 kg and 25 kg were assessed before and after training. Training significantly increased load-carriage performance (7-16%), back extension and dynamic lifting strengths, endurance and fat-free mass, and reduced body fat. Statistically significant regression models (adjusted R2 of 0.063-0.797) were produced that predicted delta load-carriage performance. However, the 95% limits of agreement between observed and predicted delta load-carriage data showed margins of error (11-15%) comparable to the average training-induced gains in performance. Training-induced changes in load-carriage performance appear to be highly specific, which suggests that both training and testing procedures should also be specific to load-carriage performance.