Heart rate as a predictor of development of sustained hypertension in subjects screened for stage 1 hypertension: the HARVEST Study.

Objective: Whether heart rate predicts the development of sustained hypertension in individuals with hypertension is not well known. We carried out a prospective study to investigate whether clinic and ambulatory heart rates assessed at baseline and changes in clinic heart rate during 6 months of follow-up were independent predictors of subsequent blood pressure (BP).

Methods: The study was conducted in a cohort of 1103 white, stage 1 hypertensive individuals from the HARVEST study, never treated for hypertension and followed-up for an average of 6.4 years. Data were adjusted for baseline BP, age, sex, body fatness, physical activity habits, parental hypertension, duration of hypertension, cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption, and change of body weight from baseline.

Results: Clinic heart rate and heart rate changes during the first 6 months of follow-up were independent predictors of subsequent systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) regardless of initial BP and other confounders (all P < 0.01). A significant interaction was found between sex (male) and baseline resting heart rate on final SBP (P = 0.017) and DBP (P < 0.001). The ambulatory heart rate and the heart rate white-coat effect did not add prognostic information to that provided by the clinic heart rate. Patients whose heart rate was persistently elevated during the study had a doubled fully adjusted risk (95% confidence interval 1.4-2.9) of developing sustained hypertension in comparison with subjects with a normal heart rate.

Conclusions: Baseline clinic heart rate and heart rate changes during the first few months of follow-up are independent predictors of the development of sustained hypertension in young persons screened for stage 1 hypertension.