AI Article Synopsis
- The study aimed to predict cancer incidence in Modena for 2002-2006 using a Bayesian Age Period Cohort model.
- Results indicated an overall expected increase in cancer cases, except for declines in stomach cancer and lung cancer among males.
- Conclusions suggest that while the APC model is generally reliable, it may overestimate certain cancers like breast and prostate due to early detection practices.
Article Abstract
Objective: Cancer incidence predictions for the period 2002-2006 in the Province of Modena applying a Bayesian APC (Age Period Cohort) model.
Design: Population based descriptive study.
Setting: Patients with cancer diagnosed between 1988 and 2001 recorded in Modena Cancer Registry.
Main Outcome Measures: Number of cases, crude and standardized incidence rates.
Results: Cancer incidence in 2002-2006 is expected to increase in both sexes, with the exception of stomach cancer (males and females) and lung cancer in males, both expected to decrease. The difference between the number of cases predicted for 2002 and observed data was about 0.7%.
Conclusion: Prediction based on APC model seems to be reliable for most of the cancer sites, but should be used cautiously. In particular, projected number of breast and prostate cancer cases is clearly overestimated due to diagnostic anticipation effect which gives rise to an excess in recent years.
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