Factors of severity at admission during an epidemic of dengue 1 in New Caledonia (South Pacific) in 2003.

We report a retrospective study of an epidemic of dengue in New-Caledonia (South Pacific) in 2003 among adult inpatients. The aim was to establish clinical and biological criteria for the severity of the infection at the time of admission. During 7 months, all inpatients older than 15 y having a laboratory-confirmed diagnosis of dengue fever (IgM or PCR) were included (n=170). Two groups were defined: severe cases (death and/or transfer to intensive care unit, n=24) and benign cases (n=146). Data were analysed using Epi-Info software. Univariate analysis showed that shock, haemorrhage and neurological complications were significantly more frequent in serious cases, respectively 37.5% vs 0.7%, 62.5% vs 32.2%, 25% vs 9.6% (p<0.05). Relevant biological criteria were: creatinine > 140 micromol/l (OR 12 (95% CI 3.93-37.44)), free bilirubin > 18 micromol/l (OR 12.69 ( 95% CI 2.88-59.5)), amylase > 220 UI/l (OR 27.34 (95% CI 4.57-210)) and platelets < 45,000/mm3 (OR 4.35 (95% CI 1.43-14.2)) with p<0.005 (VPP = 100% for association of 3 criteria). We suggest this combination of 4 biological criteria inclines to severity.