Hepatocellular carcinoma in Lebanon: Etiology and prognostic factors associated with short-term survival.

Aim: To study the epidemiology of HCC in Lebanon and prognostic factors predictive of early mortality.

Methods: An observational follow-up cohort study of HCC cases diagnosed over a five-year period was carried out. Multivariate analysis was conducted to identify prognostic factors in comparison to Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) score. Multiple variables including the etiology of underlying liver disease, the demographic characteristics of patients, and the severity of liver disease evaluated by the Child-Pugh score were studied. Tumor parameters included the time of diagnosis of HCC, alpha-fetoprotein level, number and size of nodules, presence of portal vein thrombosis, and treatment modalities. Death or loss of follow-up was considered as an end-point event.

Results: Ninety-two patients (mean 60.5 +/- 22.3 years) were included. Etiology of underlying disease was hepatitis B, C, and alcohol in 67%, 20%, and 23.5% respectively. Child-Pugh class at diagnosis was A, B, and C in 34.8%, 39.3% and 25.8% respectively. Overall survival was 44.8%, 32.8% and 17.6% at 1, 2 and 3 years respectively (mean F/U 40.2 +/- 23.5 mo). Multivariate analysis identified three predictors of early mortality (< 6 mo): bilirubin > 3.2 mg/dL (P < 0.01), HCC as first presentation of liver disease (P = 0.035), and creatinine > 1 mg/dL (P = 0.017). A score based on these variables outperformed the CLIP score by Cox proportional hazard. ROC curve showed both models to be equivalent and moderately accurate.

Conclusion: HBV is the leading cause of HCC in Lebanon. Independent predictors of early mortality are elevated bilirubin, creatinine and HCC as first manifestation of disease. Prospective validation of a score based on these clinical parameters in predicting short-term survival is needed.