Predicting short-term stock fluctuations by using processing fluency.

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A

Department of Psychology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA.

Published: June 2006

Three studies investigated the impact of the psychological principle of fluency (that people tend to prefer easily processed information) on short-term share price movements. In both a laboratory study and two analyses of naturalistic real-world stock market data, fluently named stocks robustly outperformed stocks with disfluent names in the short term. For example, in one study, an initial investment of 1,000 US dollars yielded a profit of 112 US dollars more after 1 day of trading for a basket of fluently named shares than for a basket of disfluently named shares. These results imply that simple, cognitive approaches to modeling human behavior sometimes outperform more typical, complex alternatives.

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http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1482615PMC
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0601071103DOI Listing

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