The effect of prior disability history on subsequent functional transitions.

Background: Many older persons experience multiple transitions between states of disability and independence, but little is known about the effect of prior disability history on subsequent functional transitions. Our objective was to determine the effect of prior disability on subsequent transitions between no disability, mild disability, severe disability, and death.

Methods: For 60 months, 754 persons aged 70 or older underwent monthly assessments of disability in basic activities of daily living. We used a multistate extension of the proportional hazards model to determine the effects of amount, defined as cumulative duration, and distribution, defined as number of episodes, of prior disability on subsequent functional transitions, adjusted for age, gender, cognitive status, timed gait, and habitual physical activity.

Results: For each additional month of prior disability, participants were more likely to make transitions representing new or worsening disability and were less likely to make transitions from disability to independence or from severe disability to death. Adjusting for the cumulative duration of prior disability, more episodes of prior disability were associated with a higher likelihood of most transitions, representing both increasing and decreasing disability, but had no effect on transitions to death.

Conclusions: Both the amount and distribution of prior disability are important determinants of the likelihood of subsequent functional transitions. Analytic methods that account for prior disability history should be used in studies of functional transitions, and new measures of disability burden are needed that incorporate distribution as well as amount of disability.