Prediction of distal radius fracture in children, using a biomechanical impact model and case-control data on playground free falls.

Objectives: To assess the ability of a biomechanical impact model to predict the likelihood of distal radius fracture in children using data gathered for a previous epidemiological case-control study of falls from playground equipment.

Methodology: Factor of Risk (FR) values were generated for each of selected subjects from the case-control study using a biomechanical model. Logistic regression curves were fitted to examine the relationship between the FR values and the probability of radius fracture.

Results: Forty-five cases and thirty-one controls were selected. The logistic regression analyses showed a significant association between the probability of fracture and FR.

Conclusions: The biomechanical model distinguished between children who fractured their distal radius and those who did not. The model can be used to test how risk factors, such as fall height and ground surface type, affect physical stresses transmitted through the arm and their relation to the fracture tolerance of the distal radius.