[Developing a hospital-based high risk scoring model and screening strategy for pancreatic cancer].

Objective: To develop a high risk scoring model and screening strategy to improve the diagnosis of symptomatic pancreatic cancer.

Methods: A hospital-based case-control study was undertaken among a cohort comprising 136 pancreatic cancer patients and 191 patients with benign gastrointestinal diseases who were hospitalized between Feb, 2002 and Mar, 2004. All patients were consulted with an epidemiological questionnaire. Risk factors and symptoms described in the questionnaire were compared between these two groups. Significant and borderline risk factors and symptoms were selected to undergo multivariate logistic regression. A high risk scoring model was constructed according to the weighted numerical scores of every variable. The diagnostic values of 4 tumor markers of pancreatic cancers (serum CA19-9, CA242, stool K-ras and p53 mutation) and 2 imaging tests (abdominal spiral CT and ultrasonography) were evaluated to provide evidence for establishing the diagnostic strategy.

Results: The average score was significantly higher for the pancreatic cancer patients than for the control patients [mean 49.6 (95% CI: 45.6-53.7) vs 21.6 (95% CI: 19.3-23.9); P < 0.01]. With a cutoff value of 27 points, the sensitivity and specificity of the scoring model was 87.0% and 68.1% respectively. CT had the highest sensitivity (94.7%) among the 4 tumor markers and 2 imaging tests. Combination of the two tumor markers (CA19-9 and stool K-ras) with CT or ultrasonography could improve the sensitivity to 100% with a specificity of 67.5%-73.0%. It was suggested that for high risk patients with a risk score more than 27, the combination test be recommended as the primary test, endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) and/or endoscopic retrograde cholangipancreatography (ERCP) be considered for patients with inconclusive CT studies when risk score and tumor markers nevertheless suggest pancreatic cancer.

Conclusion: The high risk scoring model provides a simple and feasible way to screen pancreatic patients in hospitals at all levels. Once high risk patients are identified, they can be transferred to higher level hospitals to receive further examinations. This screening strategy may help detect more resectable pancreatic cancers.