A recent increase in AIDS at Lyon University Hospitals: patient characteristics and comparisons with previous years.

Background: A 36% increase in the incidence of AIDS was observed in 2002/2003 compared with 2000/2001 at Lyon University Hospitals.

Objectives: We compared the characteristics of these patients with the characteristics of those diagnosed previously with AIDS.

Methods: Data for all patients with AIDS diagnosed at Lyon University Hospitals were analyzed. The data were collected prospectively. Multiple logistic regression was used for analysis.

Results: The variables independently associated with an AIDS diagnosis in 2002/2003 compared with the 1985-1989 period were: homosexual exposure [odds ratio (OR) 0.4; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.2-0.8]; heterosexual exposure in an endemic area (OR 22.5; 95% CI 6.8-74.8), compared with other exposure to HIV; lymphoma as initial AIDS event (OR 10.3; 95% CI 2.7-39.1) compared with Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia; and age at first AIDS event aged 34-38 years (OR 2.5; 95% CI 1.0-6.4), aged 39-46 years (OR 5.1; 95% CI 2.2-11.8), and aged 47-84 years (OR 10.6; 95% CI 4.5-25.1) compared with aged <30 years. The variables independently associated with an AIDS diagnosis in 2002/2003 compared with the 1997/2001 period were age at first AIDS event aged 34-38 years (OR 0.4; 95% CI 0.2-0.9) compared with aged <30 years.

Conclusion: Recently diagnosed AIDS patients differed from those diagnosed previously, showing an epidemic switch in different populations. The characteristics of the AIDS population in 2002/2003 might reflect public health messages disseminated around 10 years ago or more for the prevention of HIV transmission. Anticipation of populations affected by the AIDS epidemic is difficult.