Assessment of ozone effects on nitrate export from Hubbard Brook Watershed 6.

The impact of the air pollution ozone on soil N dynamics and temporal and spatial patterns of streamflow nitrate flux at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest Watershed 6 during the 1964-1994 period was assessed using aggregated (one-cell) and spatially explicit (208-cell) versions of the SImple NItrogen Cycle (SINIC) model. Simulated ozone effects included reductions in stomatal conductance and plant N demand. Model uncertainty was evaluated using Monte Carlo simulations. Ambient ozone was estimated to cause an additional 0.042 gN/m2 per year of nitrate export, 12% of the mean annual streamflow nitrate flux. The 95% credible interval of this estimate was 0.002-0.083 gN/m2 per year, or 0.72-27.3% of the annual flux. The large uncertainty in this estimate suggests that it may be difficult to identify ozone effects on nitrate export utilizing long term data from a single site.