Risk factors for short- and long-term survival of primary cadaveric renal allografts in pediatric recipients: a UNOS analysis.

Background: Pediatric kidney graft survival rates have improved in the United States. This study evaluates early and late risk factors for cadaveric graft loss in pediatric recipients.

Methods: From January 1994 to December 2002, 2,597 primary cadaveric kidney-alone transplants (donor age 5-45 years, recipient age 2-20 years) were reported to the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS). The analysis includes follow-up information based on OPTN data as of October 14, 2003. Odds ratio of early graft loss and relative risk of late graft loss are estimated using logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards model, respectively.

Results: Graft survival rates significantly improved during 1999-2002 (95% and 79% at 1-year and 3-years, respectively) compared with those of 1994-1998 (88% and 76% at 1-year and 3-years, respectively) (log rank P=0.02). After adjusting for other variables, the factors that significantly affected early transplant outcome adversely within 3 months posttransplant were prolonged cold ischemia time (>36 hours, odds ratio [OR]=3.38 vs. 0-36 hours) and young recipient age (2-5 years old, OR=2.02 vs. 6-12 years). Beyond 3 months, significant risk factors were African-American recipients (relative risk [RR]=1.93 vs. others), teenage recipients (13-20 yrs, RR=1.50 vs. 6-12 yrs), and patients with focal glomerulosclerosis (FGS) (RR=1.27 vs. others).

Conclusions: The short-term graft survival rate of pediatric cadaveric kidney transplants has significantly improved, yet the long-term outcome has changed little. The long-term outcomes for teenagers (13-20 yrs), patients with FGS, and African-Americans lag significantly behind other groups. In order to improve long-term graft survival in these high-risk patients, newer preventive or treatment strategies must be developed.