Prediction of early and late recurrence in patients with breast carcinoma.

Background: The clinical course of patients with recurrent breast carcinoma varies greatly. Better characterization of an individual's clinical course for recurrent patients may aid in their clinical management. However, less attention has been paid to evaluating factors associated with the timing of recurrence in those patients. We investigated the clinicopathological indicators that determined the timing of recurrence by univariate and multivariate analysis.

Methods: We retrospectively examined data on 1428 curatively treated Japanese patients who had been surgically treated for breast cancer between 1983 and 2002. From these, 244(17.1%)who had clearly died of recurrence were entered into this study.

Results: By univariate analysis, tumor size, estrogen receptor(ER), and progesterone receptor(PgR)were significantly correlated with time to recurrence. Multivariate analysis indicated that the time between operation and recurrence was independently influenced by ER and PR.

Conclusions: Our research shows that ER and PgR are independent factors influencing the timing of recurrence of breast carcinoma after curative resection. The combined analysis of these independent factors facilitates prediction of the time to recurrence for each patient.