Long-term outcome of deceased donor renal transplants correlates with the 30-day creatinine reduction ratio.

A simplified model to correlate early allograft function with long-term allograft survival in recipients of deceased donor renal transplants (DDRT) remains challenging. We propose here a novel approach, using the change from the pretransplant creatinine to the 30-day posttransplant creatinine. The outcomes of 153 consecutive DDRT performed at our center between January 1998 and March 2001 were reviewed. The percentage change in creatinine from the pretransplant to 1 month posttransplant, termed here, the creatinine reduction ratio (CRR), was calculated as follows: (pretransplant creatinine-creatinine at 1 month)/pretransplant creatinine *100%. Patients were divided as follows: group 1 CRR>or=67% and group 2<67%. Group 1 had a graft survival at 1 and 5 years of 100% and 89.1% versus 88% and 69.1% for group 2 (log-rank p=0.0008). The risk ratio for graft loss during the follow-up period was four times lower for the patients on group 1. Using the Cox hazards model to compare CRR>or=67% with determinants of long-term outcome, the risk ratio of graft loss during the observational period was 0.26 (p=0.001). The creatinine reduction ratio, when stratified by a level of >or=67% has a strong correlation with superior long-term allograft survival in recipients of DDRT.