Workforce projections for emergency medicine in Puerto Rico: a five-year follow-up of an evident demand.

In this study, two mathematical equations were used to calculate and establish the actual Emergency Medicine workforce needed in Puerto Rico (PR) and project the time frame to meet the actual demand. 1) Supply equals the number of existing Emergency Physicians (EPs) plus residency-trained graduates in EM per year minus the annual attrition rate (3%); and 2) Demand equals six (6) full time equivalent positions per Emergency Department (ED) times the total number of EDs in PR. Under both scenarios tested, the significant EP shortage in PR will continue until 2044. The actual calculated shortage is 287 EPs. There is an actual significant shortage in the Puerto Rico EP workforce. It will take a long time to make leaders understand the positive impact of having residency-trained EPs in every ED, on quality patient care and the whole health care system.