Early levels of HIV-1 DNA in peripheral blood mononuclear cells are predictive of disease progression independently of HIV-1 RNA levels and CD4+ T cell counts.

Background: The objective of this work was to assess the role of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) reservoirs in the risk of disease progression, by studying the relationship between HIV DNA level in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and progression toward acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS).

Methods: HIV-1 DNA levels in PBMCs were determined by quantitative polymerase chain reaction for 383 patients enrolled in the SEROCO Cohort Study who had experienced seroconversion and had been followed up for >8 years. We compared the predictive values of HIV DNA level, HIV RNA level, and CD4+ cell count.

Results: Between 6 and 24 months after seroconversion, HIV DNA level was a major predictor of progression to AIDS independently of HIV RNA level and CD4+ T cell count (adjusted relative risk [RR] for a 1-log(10) increase, 3.20 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.70-6.00]). HIV DNA level was also a major predictor of disease progression during the first 6 months after seroconversion (adjusted RR, 4.16 [95% CI, 1.70-10.21]), when HIV RNA level and CD4+ T cell count were less predictive. Thus, a combination of these 3 markers provides the best estimate of the risk of disease progression for each patient.

Conclusions: Our results suggest that HIV DNA level could be a useful additional marker in clinical practice and could aid in helping to define the best time to initiate treatment for each patient.