To elucidate the influence of serum hepatitis B virus (HBV) load on hepatocellular carcinogenesis in cirrhotic patients, HBV-DNA was sequentially measured. In a nested, case-control study using 96 patients without antiviral therapy, high HBV-DNA (> or =10(3.7) copies/ml) in the last 3 years was significantly associated with carcinogenesis (a patient group without hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development; 0/48 vs. a patient group with eventual HCC development; 22/48, p < 0.0001). No patient with a continuously low HBV-DNA for the last 3 years developed HCC. Persistence of high HBV-DNA concentration suggested an increased risk of carcinogenesis. In a retrospective cohort study using 57 patients with interferon therapy, HCC developed in 2 (8.0%) of the 25 patients with HBV-DNA loss, while carcinogenesis was found in 11 (34.4%) of 32 patients without HBV-DNA loss (Fisher's exact test, p = 0.026). A significant decrease or loss of serum HBV-DNA stops HCC development, and its sequential analysis could be very useful both in the prediction and early detection of small HCC.
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