Aortic stiffness may predict progression to hypertension beyond classic risk factors. In a longitudinal study, we assessed the predictive value of aortic stiffness on future hypertension in nonhypertensive subjects with blood pressure (BP) <140/90. Aortic stiffness was determined by echocardiography at baseline in 2512 subjects. The follow-up time was 4 years. A stepwise increase in hypertension incidence occurred across the male and older participants: 3.8% of young female individuals, 11.5% of young male, 26.1% of old female, and 58.8% of old male subjects progressed to hypertension over 4 years. In multivariate analysis, aortic stain, distensibility, and stiffness index (beta) remained significantly associated with the progression to future hypertension after adjustment to classic risk factors in men and women and in young and old populations. This study provides the first direct evidence to our knowledge in a longitudinal study that aortic stiffness is an independent predictor of progression to hypertension in nonhypertensive individuals.
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