Factors predicting 10-year survival after heart transplantation.

Background: We sought to identify factors predictive of long-term (>10-year) survival in heart transplant (HTx) recipients.

Methods: Four hundred fifteen adult patients underwent HTx at our institution between August 1982 and May 1997. The 158 patients who survived >10 years (Group A) and the 116 patients who died between 2 and 6 years (Group B) of HTx were compared in terms of gender, gender mismatch, ethnicity, age, height, weight, United Network for Organ Sharing status, type of induction therapy (OKT3 or anti-thymocyte globulin), infections (bacterial, viral, fungal and protozoal), cytomegalovirus (CMV) status, CMV mismatch, diabetes mellitus, hypertension and incidence of rejection episodes and transplant coronary artery disease within 2 years of HTx.

Results: Group A (135 men, 23 women; mean age 48 +/- 11 years) had significantly fewer post-HTx rejection episodes and viral, bacterial, fungal and total infections than did Group B (95 men, 21 women; mean age 49 +/- 12 years). Group A also had a significantly lower mean donor age, a lower incidence of pre-HTx diabetes, and a lower mean cholesterol level 1 year after HTx. In a multivariate analysis, fewer bacterial infections and rejection episodes after HTx, the absence of pre-HTx diabetes, and lower donor age were associated with longer survival.

Conclusions: Pre-HTx diabetes, donor age and incidences of infection and rejection within 2 years of HTx predict long-term (>10-year) survival. Better control of infection and rejection during the first 2 years after HTx may improve survival.