Evaluation of prospective, routine application of Ki-67 immunoquantitation in early CIN for assessment of short-term progression risk.

Objective: To prospectively validate, in early cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN), routine assessment of a previously developed prognostic Ki-67 immunoquantitative progression-risk model.

Study Design: Two hundred sixty-six consecutive cervical biopsies taken for an abnormal cytologic smear were routinely diagnosed by experienced pathologists as CIN. Ki-67 immunoquantitation was performed routinely by 3 technicians blinded to clinical and pathologic information. Progression of CIN 1-2 to CIN 3 in histologic follow-up biopsies was used as the intermediate end point.

Results: In 58 (22%) biopsies, technical shortcomings prevented Ki-67 immunoquantitation, and in 22 biopsies no follow-up was available. The routine diagnosis in the 186 remaining biopsies was CIN 1 = 24, CIN 2 = 56 and CIN 3 = 106. In 52 marker biopsies with expert review diagnosis of CIN 1-2 and adequate follow-up, histologic biopsies revealed CIN 3 in 9 (17%) cases: 9 of 34 (26%) of Ki-67 high-risk and 0 of 18 (0%) of Ki-67 low-risk lesions (log rank = 5.0, P = .03). Routine CIN grade (1 or 2) was not prognostic (P = .65). Eleven (55%) of 20 CIN 1 and 7 of 32 (22%) CIN 2 cases were Ki-67 low risk and none progressed, contrasting with 4 of 9 (44%) progressions of Ki-67 high risk CIN 1s and 5 of 25 (20%) high risk CIN 2s. Expert CIN grades were stronger prognostically than routine CIN grade, but Ki-67 was still stronger.

Conclusion: Routine Ki-67 immunoquantitative progression prediction in CIN 1-2 is more predictive of CIN 3 in follow-up than are routine and review CIN grades.