The expected demographic shifts-already having commenced in many countries-have their origin primarily in decreasing birth rates and increased life expectancy. This paper will show possible development paths for life expectancy at birth up until the year 2050. We will distinguish between traditional period life tables and cohort life tables, the latter leading to more realistic values for life expectancy. It will be shown that a marked increase in life expectancy up to over 90 years is to be expected.
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| http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.exger.2003.11.002 | DOI Listing |
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