[Predictors of progression and death in patients with advanced HIV infection in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy].

Introduction: To assess the factors associated with progression of infection and death in HIV-positive patients with severe immunodepression in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART).

Methods: We studied 146 HIV-infected patients with < 100 x 10(6)/L CD4+ lymphocytes and positive cytomegalovirus (CMV) serology enrolled between December 1997 and October 1998 and prospectively followed a median of 12.1 months. The main outcome measures were progression of HIV infection, defined as the appearance of a new AIDS-defining disease (CDC category C) or death. HIV viral load, lymphocyte count (CD4+ and CD8+), HAART administration and other clinical variables were evaluated at baseline. CMV viremia (determined by PCR) and HAART efficacy were recorded during follow-up.

Results: Progression was observed in 40% of patients and 17% died. Factors associated with progression or death were CD4+ lymphocyte count less than 50 x 10(6)/L, CD8+ lymphocyte count less than 500 x 10(6)/L, HIV viral load more than 300,000 copies RNA/mL, CMV viremia, and absence or inefficacy of HAART. In the multivariate model, absence of HAART and low CD4+ and CD8+ counts remained statistically associated with progression, but the only variable associated with death was CMV viremia.

Conclusions: In patients with advanced HIV infection, CD4+ and CD8+ cell count and HAART were the most important factors related to progression, and CMV viremia was the strongest predictor of death.