Do systolic murmurs predict mortality in the elderly? A 15-year longitudinal population study of 70-year-olds.

Systolic murmurs are common in the elderly but there is a striking paucity regarding published reports on their clinical significance and relation with mortality. This study describes prevalence of systolic murmurs in the elderly and cardiovascular diseases in 70-year-olds with or without systolic murmurs, and investigates the relation between systolic murmurs at age 70 and 15-year mortality. This cohort study is based on 973 (449 males and 524 females) 70-year-olds from Göteborg, Sweden who were examined in 1971/1972 at the Department of Geriatric Medicine, Göteborg University, and was followed-up to the year 2001. The prevalence of systolic murmur was 31% (females 36.4%, males 23.9%). Among subjects with systolic murmurs the prevalence of coronary heart disease (CHD) and hypertension was significantly higher in both sexes and congestive heart failure (CHF) in females only. Systolic murmur was a predictor for mortality in females (RR 1.49, 95% CI 1.17-1.91) but not in males (RR 1.14, 95% CI 0.89-1.49). Diagnosis of a cardiovascular disease was a significant predictor in both sexes for mortality irrespective of having systolic murmurs. In conclusion, there is a significant positive association of cardiovascular diseases with systolic murmurs in the elderly. The increased risk for mortality due to the presence of systolic murmur at age 70 is mediated through cardiovascular diseases.