A model to assess the risk of recurrences of superficial bladder carcinoma. A preliminary report based on 27 patients with a two-year follow-up.

Being able to identify patients with superficial bladder carcinoma at high risk of tumour relapse would be helpful in reducing the high recurrence rate observed in these cases, because a more aggressive prophylactic treatment could be applied. We obtained a series of cystoscopic and histological findings from 27 patients with pTa and pT1 bladder carcinomas, of whom 19 recurred within 2 years following transurethral resection. Histological grade, shape and number of tumours were chosen as discriminating features between patients who relapsed and those who did not. These three variables were used to derive a discriminant function which classified correctly 23 out of the 27 patients on the basis of their actual situation of tumour relapse at 2 years. This method might therefore prove to be useful in predicting accurately the outcome of each patient, thus allowing us to follow an individualized protocol of surveillance and treatment based on a quantified risk for tumour recurrence.